It’s quite a welcome, but entirely possible that the chancellor doesn’t even see it. Friedrich Merz, on this Thursday morning, is speeding to his meeting with the Lithuanian president in a police-escorted convoy. He likely doesn’t have time to glance out the tinted, reinforced windows of his vehicle.

But if he does so, he would see them – the red city buses which, on this special day in Vilnius, don’t just display the destination, but also the letters "LTU” and "DEU” separated by a heart. Lithuania loves Germany. That is the message.

Merz has traveled to Vilnius to take part in the ceremonial roll call this afternoon on Cathedral Square for Germany’s Lithuania brigade, a unit of around 5,000 men and women who are here to secure NATO’s eastern flank. Merz’s visit is intended as a demonstration of solidarity.

The Lithuanian president welcomes his guest in German, showering him and the Germans with praise and gratitude. And Merz pledges that he is determined "to defend the NATO alliance from all aggression.”

Merz, the chairman of Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has kicked off his term as German chancellor with a diplomatic charm offensive of a kind that many of Germany’s partners had been hoping for following the rather tepid tenure of Olaf Scholz. Emmanuel Macron in Paris, Donald Tusk in Warsaw, Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv – hardly any previous German head of government has made so many visits in such a short time after being sworn into office.

In the first weeks of his tenure, Merz has clearly shown more interest in foreign policy than in domestic issues, and he has made Ukraine a top priority. Already, Merz has succeeded in ensuring that the most important European countries are on the same page when it comes to Russia and are at least taken seriously enough by U.S. President Donald Trump that they speak regularly on the phone.

But by focusing so intently on foreign policy and Ukraine, Merz has also raised expectations, including hopes that the three-year-long war may soon be coming to an end. That is the flip side of his burst of activity. What, though, can he actually achieve?

Facing Reality

When he was head of the opposition in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, Merz was a sharp critic of Scholz’s approach to Ukraine: the lack of coordination with France and Poland; the half-hearted support for Kyiv, especially when it came to weapons deliveries. Ukraine has to "fight with one arm tied behind its back,” he railed, because Scholz was refusing to send Ukraine high-tech Taurus cruise missiles from Germany.

Now that he is in office, though, Merz has been forced to face reality. He declared an ultimatum for new sanctions against Russia, only to let it pass when Trump wanted to continue talks. He was taken off guard by his own foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, expressing agreement for Trump’s demand that NATO member states boost defense spending to 5 percent of GDP – thus angering Merz’s coalition partner, the SPD, which had not been consulted. And when it comes to the Taurus, the chancellor is twisting and turning so much that he almost resembles his predecessor Scholz.

Ukraine will be a key test for Germany’s new chancellor. Now that Merz has made the friendly inaugural visits, it must be seen if he can successfully negotiate with more difficult counterparts. Merz chatted with Viktor Orbán on the sidelines of a summit in Tirana, with the Hungarian prime minister telling him he would not support additional sanctions against Russia. Merz also still hasn’t spoken with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. And it is unclear when he might make his first visit to the White House.

A committed trans-Atlanticist, Merz must accept the fact that he will be judged on his ability to keep the unpredictable U.S. president from abandoning the Western camp. As the opposition leader, it was easy for Merz to hold forth on the best strategy for confronting Washington. Now, though, Merz must show that it wasn’t all just empty rhetoric.

During these initial days in office, Merz has gotten a taste of the power that comes with his office on the international stage, but he has also gotten a glimpse of the danger of failure. With his trip to Kyiv, which he took together with Macron, Tusk and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer shortly after being sworn in, the chancellor embarked on an early flurry of diplomacy. It marked the first time that Merz, together with the others, spoke with Trump on the phone. Not since the initial months after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has there been such a concentration of meetings and telephone conferences.

Conversations with European diplomats and with members of Merz’s circle have shown how Merz set an international dynamic in motion that gave him hope, albeit briefly, of an almost historic breakthrough. A common trans-Atlantic position with Donald Trump against Putin.

For a time, it looked as though Trump was moving toward Europe, as though he had lost his patience with Putin’s antics. There was the potential of a united front against Moscow, the isolation of Russia and a reunified West. It could have been a significant early success for Merz just two weeks into his tenure. But following a subsequent telephone call between Putin and Trump early last week, not much was left of those hopes beyond disappointment. Merz was only just able to avoid a major defeat.

A Protocol of Europe’s Efforts to Win Over Trump

After returning to Berlin from Kyiv, Merz spoke on the phone for almost an hour with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, widely considered to be a Trump confidant. Graham told Merz that around 80 Senators were prepared to impose additional sanctions on Russia. Were the U.S. to target the Kremlin’s oil sales, it could do significant damage to Putin’s war chest.

A few days later, Zelenskyy flew to Turkey. Putin had proposed direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul after Merz, Macron and others had issued an ultimatum for a ceasefire backed by threats of more sanctions. After he arrived, Zelenskyy announced he would wait there for Putin. But the Russian president only sent a low-ranking delegation, and Zelenskyy declined to meet personally with the emissaries. Unsurprisingly, the talks – the first direct exchange between Russia and Ukraine since spring 2022 – were rather unproductive, yielding only the exchange of 1,000 prisoners from each country.

By then, Merz and his counterparts had already arrived in Tirana for the European Political Community summit, where they met with Zelenskyy. From the European perspective, the Ukrainian leader had demonstrated goodwill, and again they wanted to speak with Trump, using Macron’s mobile phone just as they had in Kyiv. Merz joined the group just before the phone call started. The conversation gave the Europeans the impression that Trump was dissatisfied with the results of the meeting in Istanbul. He apparently said he was beginning to understand that Putin wasn’t serious about peace.

But, if the planned European sanctions were to make any kind of impression on Putin, the Americans had to be on board – that was the consensus inside the Chancellery. And support from Washington seemed to be in the offing following numerous talks between security officials in Berlin, London and Paris with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy who had met with Putin in Moscow on several occasions. Witkoff shared the belief that there had been a lack of substantive progress toward peace – and that Putin would only be moved if the pressure was jacked up.

Late on Sunday evening, May 18, Merz, Macron and Starmer found themselves on hold ahead of what would be the third phone conversation, this one to tie up the final details. But before the U.S. president joined the call, the others suddenly and unexpectedly heard the voice of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had just met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Rome. The assumption was that the White House had brought her onto the call. The confusion was short-lived, however.

When Trump finally joined the call after a time, he even used the word sanctions – just hours before his planned call with the Kremlin. Merz and the other European leaders were extremely hopeful, according to members of the chancellor’s circle. Would Trump show firmness this time in his conversation with Putin? Might he even threaten Putin with sanctions?

Merz’s fourth phone call with Trump would be a trial by fire for Merz. It took place after Trump’s phone call with Putin. This time, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were also on the line – at Trump’s behest. Italian Prime Minister Meloni also joined the call, as did Macron and Zelenskyy.

In a one-on-one chat with Trump, the Ukrainian president had already heard what the U.S. president now told the Europeans: His talk with Putin had gone wonderfully. The Russian president, Trump insisted, was prepared to engage in direct talks, immediately, and he promised to send high-ranking representatives. Zelenskyy, Trump said, should soon phone Putin and a deal would quickly be forthcoming. He didn’t say a word about the sanctions the Europeans had been hoping for. He also didn’t mention the comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire he himself had publicly called for.

You can’t make a deal with Vladimir, the U.S. president mumbled. Or did he say Volodymyr? Merz and the others couldn’t quite make it out. But the message was clear nonetheless: Trump was threatening to back out. Ukraine, he said, was the Europeans’ problem and they should solve it, a formulation that Trump repeated.

Once again, Putin had managed to get the American president on his side. There was a long, awkward silence on the line from this side of the Atlantic.

Trump Praises Merz for His English

Someone had to take the initiative to somehow keep Trump in the game and to save what could be saved. But who?

The Europeans to this point had seemed to play predefined roles. Macron was generally the spokesman, since he has known Trump the longest. Indeed, the first two conversations took place using his mobile phone. But this time, his jovial manner wasn’t a good fit. In the phone conversation on the previous evening, he and Trump had gotten into it. Trump had lectured the Europeans on how terrible their immigration policy was and how bad their economy was doing. Macron didn’t hold back in his response.

Starmer, the British prime minister, couldn’t take the lead since he wasn’t on the call.

Which left Merz. He had been party to all the previous phone calls. On the previous day, the two had graduated from addressing each other as "Mr. President” and "Chancellor” to Donald and Friedrich. Trump had praised Merz for his English. On the sidelines of the inauguration of Pope Leo XIV, the two had exchanged text messages for the first time.

Merz, as diplomats and government representatives would later say, opted for a matter-of-fact approach. Saying he wanted to "summarize” the situation, Merz said that from his perspective, they had reached the point where technical talks could begin. The German chancellor took up Trump’s idea that the Vatican could host such talks. Trump agreed, though without enthusiasm, reportedly saying something along the lines of: "Fine with me.” Merz asked twice more to ensure that the U.S. president was onboard. Trump replied that he would send his special envoy Keith Kellogg.

There was significant relief. Merz had been able to prevent the process from coming to an abrupt end and Trump had not abandoned ship. Though that could change at any moment, that much was clear to everyone in the Chancellery.

Merz and his team were now hoping that Trump would not snub the first pope with a U.S. passport in the same manner he had the Europeans. Senior officials were saying that they were now back where they had been before the meeting in Istanbul. Meloni had also spoken with the Vatican on the telephone and received assurance that the talks could take place there. By the middle of the week, though, there was still no concrete timeline – and European fears were rising that Putin might once again present his maximum demands. If he did, the Europeans would again have to talk with Trump. Merz was determined to pick up the phone again – alone if need be.

Among Western diplomats, various scenarios were now in circulation for how things between Trump and Russia might progress. Most presumed that the U.S. president had lost his desire for playing peacemaker and was inclined to leave it to the Europeans to deal with the Ukraine mess.

A variety of developments are conceivable under this pessimistic scenario. The least bad of the developments envisions Trump leaving peace negotiations to the two warring parties. While he may not approve new military aid for Ukraine, he would continue to supply weapons as long as Ukraine and Europe pay for them. Under this scenario, Kyiv could also hope to continue its reliance on U.S. intelligence information.

A darker scenario envisions Trump suspending weapons shipments to Ukraine, completely stopping all U.S. intelligence information and declaring the U.S. as a neutral party. In this case, the Ukrainians and the Europeans would be on their own.

The nightmare scenario, though, is even worse. It envisions Trump not just suspending weapons deliveries and intelligence cooperation in addition to the lifting of U.S. sanctions against Russia, but also openly siding with Putin – against Ukraine and against the Europeans. That would likely mark the end of the trans-Atlantic alliance.

Just how it might end will likely be determined at the NATO summit in The Hague in late June. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has done everything he can in recent months to choreograph the alliance’s summit into a kind of gala event in Trump’s honor. Channeling the language frequently used by Trump, Rutte said at NATO headquarters last week that the meeting of heads of state and government in The Hague had to be a "splash.” Instead of the usual unending marathon of meetings, Rutte is only planning a concentrated working session that will focus exclusively on money.

Trump is likely to approve the summit’s rather predictable result. As recently as January, the U.S. president’s demand that European NATO member states boost their defense spending from 2 percent to 5 percent of GDP was considered excessive. Since then, though, Rutte has convinced most NATO countries, including Germany, to accept the 5-percent plan in order to appease Trump.

Rutte has also eliminated potential conflicts from the agenda, including the future of Ukraine. Indeed, Zelenskyy hasn’t even been invited. NATO’s commitment that Ukraine will one day become part of the alliance is also not to be repeated in the summit declaration. Diplomats are currently trying to come up with formulations that allude to the Russian threat – which, after all, is the main reason for the alliance’s buildup – without risking a veto from the U.S.

None of that is good news for Ukraine, something that the German chancellor, following two weeks of intensive diplomacy, has also had to admit. "There are currently no indications that this war is going to come to a rapid conclusion,” Merz said last Wednesday in Berlin, sounding somewhat disillusioned.

Hopes now rest on the Vatican as the host of the talks. "We can all only hope that at least there, it will be possible to bring the warring parties together for a constructive discussion,” Merz said. It is, he added, "the last earthly authority, so to speak.”

Otherwise, Merz’s diplomatic offensive will have come to naught.